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25 декабря 2022 г. 13:59

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The stock exchange is a place where passions boil

I started reading Theodore Dreiser's The Financier. And I literally feel that financial suspense is growing. The stock exchange is a place where human psychology works and mathematics is secondary. Game theory assumes that all people are rational. But is this true? Is the desire to buy a sports car really rational? Is the desire to take a big risk for a small win really rational? The answer to both questions is no. But it is emotion that drives people in the stock market. You can read hundreds of books on technical and fundamental analysis, learn the probability theory or use cunning formulas, but you do not fool the human nature. Put in place a "Fool's Defense." Let your assets not be influenced by ancient instincts. Let you not have the opportunity to risk half of your capital at once.

You know what Nassim Taleb does?
He keeps 99% of his portfolio in conservative investment instruments. And for the remaining percentage, he gets off to the fullest: he invests in startups, cryptocurrencies, or "trendy" stocks. That's how Taleb gets the opportunity to "play" - without harming his capital.

We are not adapted to mathematical thinking. Our instincts still say, "Hit and run." Don't let your emotions ruin you.