Тейн Густафсон — новинки

A discerning analysis of the future effects of climate change on Russia, the major power most dependent on the fossil fuel economy.

Russia will be one of the countries most affected by climate change. No major power is more economically dependent on the export of hydrocarbons; at the same time, two-thirds of Russia's territory lies in the arctic north, where melting permafrost is already imposing growing damage. Climate change also brings drought and floods to Russia's south, threatening the country's agricultural exports.

Thane Gustafson predicts that, over the next thirty years, climate change will leave a dramatic imprint on Russia. The decline of fossil fuel use is already underway, and restrictions on hydrocarbons will only tighten, cutting fuel prices and slashing Russia's export revenues. Yet Russia has no substitutes for oil and gas revenues. The country is unprepared for the worldwide transition to renewable energy, as Russian leaders continue to invest the national wealth in oil and gas while dismissing the promise of post-carbon technologies. Nor has the state made efforts to offset the direct damage that climate change will do inside the country. Optimists point to new opportunities--higher temperatures could increase agricultural yields, the melting of arctic ice may open year-round shipping lanes in the far north, and Russia could become a global nuclear-energy supplier. But the eventual post-Putin generation of Russian leaders will nonetheless face enormous handicaps, as their country finds itself weaker than at any time in the preceding century.

Lucid and thought-provoking, Klimat shows how climate change is poised to alter the global order, potentially toppling even great powers from their perches.

Цитата "К концу 1990-х гг. все крупнейшие международные нефтяные компании провели в России почти десятилетие, и все они пришли к единому выводу: "волшебного ключика" к этому царству не существует". Тейн Густафсон О чем книга Об одном из крупнейших секторов российской экономики - нефтяном бизнесе. О том, как все рухнуло и начало возрождаться почти с нулевой отметки, после краха Советской империи. А также о том, какое есть будущее у российской нефти. Почему книга достойна прочтения Когда свой взор на Россию обращает иностранный специалист, это всегда интересно. Данная книга не стала исключением. Т.Густафсон уверен: история нефти…

The Russian oil industry which vies with Saudi Arabia as the world s largest producer and exporter of oil, providing nearly 12 percent of the global supply is facing mounting problems that could send shock waves through the Russian economy and worldwide. "Wheel of Fortune" provides an authoritative account of this vital industry from the last years of communism to its uncertain future. Tracking the interdependence among Russia s oil industry, politics, and economy, Thane Gustafson shows how the stakes extend beyond international energy security to include the potential threat of a destabilized Russia.

Gustafson, a leading consultant and analyst of the politics of energy in the former Soviet Union, draws on interviews with key players over the course of two decades to provide a detailed history of the oil industry s evolution since the breakup of the Soviet Union. At its center is the complex and fraught relationship between the oil industry and the state, which loosened its grip under Yeltsin only to tighten it again under Putin. As oil becomes harder to find and more expensive to produce and deliver, Gustafson warns, Russia s growing dependence on revenue from oil exports, along with its inefficient and often-corrupt management of the industry, is unsustainable.

A rich but troubled Soviet legacy, the conflicting ambitions of politicians and industry oligarchs, and the excesses of capitalism Russian-style threaten to lead Russia to an impasse. Involving the oil industry in the country s modernization agenda and remaking its relationship to the state, Gustafson argues, is Russia s best path toward a stable economy and a safer world."

Россия: двадцать лет спустя

2010: Russia disintegrates as its frontier regions rebel or drift into the orbit of neighboring countries. 2010: Russia is invigorated by an economic chudo -- "miracle" -- that turns it into a thriving exemplar of the free market. 2010: Russia becomes a grim military dictatorship, bent on expansion.

This brilliant and visionary book, which is based on a confidential report by the international consulting firm CERA, offers several persuasively detailed scenarios of Russia's future. Using the management technique of "scenario planning" and drawing on an extensive knowledge of Russia's political and economic history, Daniel Yergin and Thane Gustafson have produced a study that is already shaping the investment strategies of major corporations and that will become an essential text in the policy debates about the next century. Russia 2010 captures in a timely way the changes shaking Russia and the former Soviet Union after Communism. The result is one of those rare books that not only predict the future but have the power to change it.