Новинки Питера Шварца

Книга, которую Вы держите в руках, научит Вас тому, как по случайным признакам определять намечающиеся глобальные тенденции, подобно тому, как древние жрецы-авгуры могли предсказывать события далекого будущего по полету птиц. Она научит Вас искусству предвидения, стратегического планирования и моделирования будущего - качествам, которые жизненно необходимы руководителям всех рангов и всех отраслей в сегодняшнем мире, меняющемся со скоростью света.

As it emerges from centuries of social, military, and political strife, China--which represents one fifth of the world's population and its third largest economy--is poised to play a major role in global business. But what will that role be? In this book, two experts, who have created business scenarios for some of the world's largest organizations--including Royal Dutch/Shell, AT&T, IBM, and Motorola--present three very informed versions of how China's future may unfold in the coming years and what it means to the rest of the world. These scenarios provide a foundation on which today's companies can build business strategies for years to come.
Click here to read the preface from this book.

What increasingly affects all of us, whether professional planners or individuals preparing for a better future, is not the tangibles of life—bottom-line numbers, for instance—but the intangibles: our hopes and fears, our beliefs and dreams. Only stories—scenarios—and our ability to visualize different kinds of futures adequately capture these intangibles.

In The Art of the Long View, now for the first time in paperback and with the addition of an all-new User's Guide, Peter Schwartz outlines the "scenaric" approach, giving you the tools for developing a strategic vision within your business.

Schwartz describes the new techniques, originally developed within Royal/Dutch Shell, based on many of his firsthand scenario exercises with the world's leading institutions and companies, including the White House, EPA, BellSouth, PG&E, and the International Stock Exchange.

One of America's foremost prognosticators and author of the bestseller and management classic The Art of the Long View discusses the big surprises ahead, the resulting scenarios that are creating the future of our world, and what they will

How converging technological, economic, political, and social forces are shaping our world and our future-and how our choices today can lead to a new age of prosperity. The Long Boom argues that we are on the verge of an unprecedented